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foreign currency trading
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The Dangerous Iron Condor
By Kerry Given
Placing iron condor spreads on the broad market indexes is a relatively conservative, non-directional trading strategy that may be used for consistent income generation. This strategy profits as long as the index trades within the channel formed by the two spread positions. It is best used during sideways or slowly trending markets.
Condor Spreads
A condor spread is a debit spread, established by placing a bear call spread at or above resistance and placing a bull call spread at or below support. The condor may also be established using puts with a bear put spread above and a bull put spread below. The iron condor is a variation on this trade by using a bear call spread above and a bull put spread below the price of the underlying stock or index. The iron condor is a credit spread and achieves maximum profitability if the price of the underlying closes between the short options (the strike prices we sold) of the two spreads at expiration. In that case, all options expire worthless and you achieve the maximum profit, i.e., the credits originally collected. The profitability of the iron condor is assisted by the fact that the broker only requires margin for one of the credit spreads, effectively doubling the return on investment.
Condor spreads are effective when the underlying is expected to trade within the channel defined by the spreads during the life of the options. The closer one places the spreads to the current price of the underlying, the higher the returns; however, this comes with a higher risk of the price of the underlying stock or index entering one of the spreads and causing a loss on that spread.
Trading the stock indexes with condors is effective for several reasons: 1) the indexes generally move slower than most individual stocks, 2) the indexes are less affected by an individual stock's bad news, 3) the premiums of the index options are generally much higher than individual stock options, 4) index options trade in high volume because large institutional investors use these options to hedge their portfolios; this results in high liquidity, and 5) 60% of the gains with broad index options are taxed at long term capital gains rates, regardless of the length of time in the trade.
Timing (Days to Expiration)
You can establish your condor position sometime in the range of 40 to 50 days until expiration. The precise time is not critical. The trade-offs are as follows: the earlier I put on my spread positions, the more time premium is present in the options and therefore I can receive the minimum credit I am willing to accept farther out from the current levels of the index; therefore, more safety margin is achieved. However, the more time I use in the spread, the more time that exists for the market to move against me; thus, I am incurring more risk. As time decay reduces the option premiums, I must move my spreads in closer to achieve a reasonable credit, reducing my safety margin and increasing my risk. It is also possible to trade the iron condor starting at about 30 days to expiration, but the system rules and adjustments must be adjusted accordingly.
Determining Optimal Entry Points
Some traders place the call spreads when the index is hitting resistance and appears to be turning down, and place the put spreads when the index is hitting support and appears to be turning back upward. This will maximize the size of your credits. However, if the index continues to move in that direction, your position could be in trouble quickly and you will not have the compensating spread position helping to hedge your position. For this reason, I generally establish both the call spreads and put spreads on the same day.
Choosing the Strikes
We can apply basic statistics to our deciding which strike prices are "far enough" out to be safe. The classic "bell shaped curve" we have seen in various contexts is the mathematical function known as a normal or Gaussian distribution. If we assume that future moves of the index price will be random and similar in frequency and absolute size to previous fluctuations up and down, then we can calculate the probability of the index price being
at a particular price on a particular date in the future. I calculate the standard deviation for the index, based upon its level of implied volatility and the time left to expiration. The call spreads are placed just outside one standard deviation above the index price and the put spreads are placed just below one standard deviation below the index price. This results in an iron condor position with a probability of success of approximately 80-85%.
Entering the Order and Getting Filled
Now that we have determined the strike prices for our spread, we need to calculate the credit we are going to ask for in our order. Compute the natural price for the credit spread, the natural debit spread price, and the midpoint of the spread (most online brokers calculate this for you).
Enter your order at a credit limit at the midpoint and wait to see if the order is filled. After a few minutes, adjust the credit downward by $0.05. Repeat until both spread orders are filled. But do not drop below the lower quartile of the bid/ask spread.
Never place an order for less than $0.60 to $0.70 in credit; trading commissions become too large a factor for smaller credits. My spread credits normally range from $0.60 to $1.05 per spread or about $1.20 to $2.10 per iron condor.
Stop Losses and Adjustments
The topics of setting stop losses and the variety of adjustment methodologies available are beyond the scope of this paper. An effective, but simple, risk management technique is to monitor the debit spread necessary to close your condor spreads, and when that debit is double the original credit received for that spread, close that side of the condor. This technique will close out positions more frequently, but it will result in very small losses or near breakeven results in the "bad" months when the index moves against you.
Index Option Settlement
Index options are cash settled options; there is no underlying instrument like stock shares to be called away or put to you. You simply lose or gain the dollar value at expiration, e.g., you hold 10 contracts of the $1400 call and the SPX settlement price is $1405; your account will be credited with $5,000 ((1405 - 1400) x 100 x 10). If you were short the $1400 calls, your account would be debited $5,000.
Most index options are somewhat unusual in that they cease trading for the month at market close (4:15 pm ET) on the Thursday before expiration, but the settlement price is not that closing price on Thursday or the opening price Friday morning. Therefore, all final adjustments to positions must be done on Thursday before the close. On Friday morning, the settlement price will be computed based upon the opening prices of each of the stocks that make up that index. Since each stock may not trade immediately at the open, the settlement value may not be available until later that Friday morning. Since the settlement price may vary several dollars up or down from Thursday's close, one must be cautious about going into settlement with any spread positions remaining open.
Expected Returns
If you are placing your spreads for credits of $0.70 or more, then the returns for that iron condor will be about 15% for the month (remember that margin is only charged for one half of the iron condor). If we are using roughly half of our capital for an iron condor each month, then you can expect to average returns of about 6% to 8% per month. Of course, you may have to defensively close one of the spreads a few times per year and that will reduce the annualized return of this strategy.
Summary
The iron condor trading strategy is a relatively conservative, non-directional options strategy that may be used for consistent income. However, this strategy is typical of low return strategies with high probabilities of success. The probability of a loss is small, but one large loss will wipe out several months of profits. Thus, the key to success for trading iron condors is solid risk management rules for entry and exit, stop losses, and adjustments. When deployed conservatively as outlined herein, this strategy should reasonably be expected to return 5% or more per month.
Kerry W. Given, Ph.D., aka Dr. Duke, has over twenty years of experience investing in the stock market and over seven years experience trading equity and index options. He has taken many classes on investing and trading through the years and has discovered first hand how difficult it can be to separate the financial facts from the marketing hype, myths, and get rich quick schemes. He can be reached at:
www.ParkwoodCapitalLLC.com
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